Climate Change & Scenario Analysis
Downscaling and application of climate projections, assessment of hazards under current and future climate conditions, and climate-resilience and adaptation recommendations for infrastructure.
Infrastructure designed against the last fifty years of hydrology is being asked to survive the next fifty, and in the Himalaya those are not the same distribution. Development partners increasingly require climate screening before capital is committed, and asset owners increasingly find that the design flood they built to is no longer the design flood.
e2services downscales and applies climate projections — CMIP model output under RCP and SSP scenarios — to the catchment or corridor in question, and assesses hazards under both current and future conditions. The point is not to produce a scenario document that sits beside the design, but to change the design parameters where the projection warrants it.
This work is deliberately coupled to our hydro-meteorological and glacial hazard capability. A climate projection is only useful when it can be pushed through a hydrological model to produce a revised design flood, or through a cryosphere assessment to indicate how glacial lake formation and outburst risk shift. Projection without that translation is not decision-relevant.
Climate-resilience and adaptation recommendations then set out what to do about it — which are design changes, which are operational changes, and which are monitoring commitments — with the residual uncertainty stated rather than concealed by a single headline scenario.
What we deliver
- Downscaling and application of climate projections (CMIP, RCP/SSP scenarios)
- Assessment of hazards under current and future climate conditions
- Climate-resilience recommendations for hydropower infrastructure
- Adaptation measure identification and appraisal
- Integration of climate scenarios into design parameters
How the work runs
- 01
Baseline climate characterisation
Observed rainfall, temperature and discharge characterised for the study area, using quality-controlled station records.
- 02
Projection selection and downscaling
Appropriate CMIP models and RCP/SSP scenarios selected and downscaled to the catchment, with model spread retained rather than averaged away.
- 03
Hazard assessment under scenarios
Flood, drought, extreme event and cryosphere hazards reassessed under current and projected conditions.
- 04
Design parameter implications
Revised design parameters derived where the projection materially changes them, translated into engineering terms.
- 05
Adaptation and resilience recommendations
Design, operational and monitoring measures identified and appraised, with residual uncertainty stated.
What you receive
- Baseline climate characterisation
- Downscaled climate projections under selected scenarios
- Hazard assessment under current and future conditions
- Revised design parameter recommendations
- Climate-resilience and adaptation measure appraisal
- Uncertainty and model spread documentation
- Climate screening note for financing requirements
Common questions
Do you produce a climate screening note for lenders?
Yes. Development partners increasingly require climate screening before commitment, and our output is designed to be reviewable — the scenario selection, the downscaling method and the model spread are all documented rather than reduced to a single headline number.
How does this connect to the flood design work?
Directly. A projection is only decision-relevant once it has been pushed through a hydrological model to produce a revised design flood, or through a cryosphere assessment to show how glacial lake risk shifts. We hold both of those capabilities in house, so the translation happens rather than being left to the reader.
Need a survey, a design package, or a multi-disciplinary study team?
Tell us about the corridor, basin, or facility. We will respond with the right mix of engineering and field capability.